Thursday, January 15, 2004 :::
 
For the account of people who support Dean because he's stupid, please scroll down.

"The only poll that counts is the one on election day." So said..well, who? Tip O'Neill? Somebody. And it now appears that all the ink that was spilled over Howard Dean may have been for naught. As of a few weeks ago, 65 percent of registered Democrats did not know who he was, and, on taking a closer look, they seem to have decided he is not for them. We won't know until Tuesday, but John Kerry, Dick Gephardt, and John Edwards are all rapidly coming up, with Clark moving up in New Hampshire.

Which poses a problem for the Democrats. Terry McAuliffe, the regrettable Democratic Party chairman, "front-loaded" the primary schedule, so that there would not be five months of sniping among Democrats. But now that the bloom seems to be coming off Dean, do the sane voters--the ones who only just now started thinking about teh campaign--have time to make up their minds? They won't like Clark, once they get a good look. Dick Gephardt probably represents what most Democrats actually believe, and they might well judge that he is worthy, after many long years of loyal service, of becoming one of history's footnotes.

Which brings up the point that the opponent of George Bush who probably has the biggest sway in this election is the Grand Ayatollah Sistani of the Iraqi Shi'ites, who has quickly jumped in to dominate the political scene now that Iraqis no longer fear the return of Saddam Hussein. He was before, but now he is really playing a strong hand. And if he decides that humiliating Bush helps him, you can expect the situation to deteriorate, even if most Iraqis do not agree with Sistani.

Meaning the Democratic nominee might actually have a chance to be more than a footnote.

So would A Certain Senator jump in? Again, Mr. McAuliffe, although he is her ally, may have prevented that from happening. She could only jump in if there were two or three plausible front-runners who are splitting the vote, but if there are 8 primaries in one day, chances are good that the mood will be same in all 8 states, handing all those delegates to whomever the media is gettting all hot and botheredd about.

So the chances seem slim.

But it could still happen.



::: posted by A Mind That Suits at 12:17 PM


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