Wednesday, February 16, 2005 :::
 
If one looks back to the "nightmare scenario" outlined on A Mind That Suits some weeks back, it concluded with the thought that, if Iraq splinters, at least one of our allies, Turkey, would have some of the oil.

Scratch that. Read this. Get depressed. (Link requires free registration.)

There is one bright spot in the election. The House of Shi'a swamped all its competitors in local votes, getting something like two thirds of the seats on local councils. But the intellgivent Iraqi voters split tickets, as mentioned here before. That would seem to indicate some substatial doubts about closer ties with Iran. (And very few doubts about imposing shari'a, but that has been discussed.) The war between the two countries must have left horrific scars, and they may not heal fully.

So we have Kurdish fear of Turkey and some Shi'a fear of Iran, plus a joint fear of Syria and its intentions, which they have been actively pursuing. That may be all we get.

We'll take it, we'll take it.

Also, one should correct misimpressions. The Turkish election that was voided was some time ago. The party that the army nixed got elected again in a landslide by swearing it was not Islamist, but has been acting that way in power. Which means that if the Turkish army enters Iraq, it will probably no longer be surpressing Islam as it has for 100 years. So much for that "moderating influence" of democracy.

::: posted by A Mind That Suits at 1:30 PM


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What doesn't kill me, makes me laugh... usually.